South Sudan on the brink after oil exports derailed by Sudan’s civil warExperts say that a halt in oil production could escalate already acute levels of violence and insecurity in South Sudan.
Violence and insecurity could worsen in South Sudan after one of its key oil pipelines to international markets, which passes through neighbouring Sudan, was damaged last month, according to experts.
The incident occurred in early February in Sudan’s White Nile state, prompting the Dar Petroleum Oil Company to suspend loadings.The rupture happened in an area controlled by Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, which is fighting the Sudanese army for power in the country.
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A team of technical experts has been unable to fix the pipeline due to ongoing fighting, raising fears that South Sudan’s political economy could collapse.“The pipeline accounts for two-thirds or three-quarters of oil revenues. Unless [South Sudan] is able to get the pipeline working again, it will be a massive pull on South Sudan’s budget,” said Alan Boswell, an expert on South Sudan for International Crisis Group, a non-profit dedicated to conflict resolution.Overall, oil is responsible for about 90 percent of the country’s revenue, according to a 2022 World Bank report.